After fifteen years, Hungarians seem to be falling out of love with Viktor Orbán's regime

On 25 April, 2010, in Budapest's Vörösmarty Square, Fidesz voters were overjoyed as they celebrated the election victory of Fidesz-KDNP, which had just secured a two-thirds majority in parliament. Viktor Orbán called it a historic day and announced that he would establish a new system called the System of National Cooperation (NER). “It will be a system in which we will help and encourage one another to dare to set ambitious goals and work together to achieve them,” he said. He told the crowd several times that the era of power-abusing oligarchs was over and that “from this day forward, the interests of the Hungarian people will be put first in Hungary.”

Today, fifteen years later, the majority of Hungarian society believes that Viktor Orbán's governance, which has been ongoing since 2010, has hindered rather than advanced Hungary's growth.

Two-thirds of Hungarians believe that the system primarily favors the rich and that only those who are on good terms with the government can get ahead. People are most concerned about the state of healthcare, the dramatic rise in the cost of living and corruption, while they consider the government's most important achievements to be the reinstatement of the 13th month pension, the measures for supporting families, and the cuts in utility costs.

These are some of the findings of a survey conducted by the researchers at Policy Solutions on the public's perception of the last 15 years of the Fidesz-KDNP governance. The research was based on a representative survey conducted by Závecz Research. The researchers were not only interested in how Hungarians view the 15-year performance of Viktor Orbán's governments, but also in who Hungarians expect to deliver a better government performance in the future: Fidesz or the Tisza Party. This article summarizes the findings.

"This election will be about the gas bill! This election will be about the 13th month pension! This election will be about tax exemption for mothers!" These were the words used by János Lázár, Minister of Construction and Transport to fire up his party’s supporters at a special event on Sunday. It cannot be a coincidence that he chose to highlight these government measures. According to the survey of Policy Solutions, these are precisely the measures that voters consider to be the government's greatest successes. When asked to choose the three biggest achievements of the last 15 years of governance from a list of possible answers, the 13th month pension came first in society as a whole, with every third respondent ranking it among the most important measures. The government's family support policy ranked second, followed by the utility price cuts introduced before the 2014 elections, which received one in every five votes.

Supporters of the ruling parties voted slightly differently: for them, the family support measures were followed by anti-migration measures, with the introduction of the 13th month pension coming in third place, while they rated the government's ability to prevent Hungary from being sucked into the Russian-Ukrainian war higher than the utility bill cuts.

The top three issues also came out on top when respondents were asked to provide answers without being given any options to choose from. However, when responding to this open-ended question, a quarter of those surveyed said that the government had not achieved any successes in the past decade and a half. Regardless of party affiliation, there is an agreement in society that the next government should maintain the family support policies, the 13th month pension, and the utility price cuts as well.

Respondents also gave a clear answer when asked what they considered to be the biggest problem of the past 15 years of governance: 35 percent of respondents said it was the state of the healthcare system. Slightly fewer chose the rising cost of living and the level of corruption.

The healthcare system is regarded so poorly that even Fidesz voters ranked it first. They do not see corruption as a major problem, but they do consider the huge number of skilled workers moving abroad to be one. Among Tisza Party voters, however, corruption ranked even higher than healthcare among the problems facing the country.

Only Fidesz supporters are satisfied, and very much so

While there is agreement between pro-government and opposition voters on the assessment of the successes and failures of Fidesz-KDNP governance, the two groups hold diametrically different views on Viktor Orbán's 15 years in power.

When asked whether the past decade and a half had had a mostly positive or a mostly negative impact on Hungary's development, exactly half of those surveyed said that Viktor Orbán's government had definitely had a mostly negative impact on the country's development, while only 39 percent rated its impact as positive.

When looking only at the answers of Fidesz voters, it seems as if they are living in a different country. An overwhelming majority, 88 percent, consider Viktor Orbán's governance as positive, and only one percent said that this period had had a very negative impact on the country's development. The situation is completely reversed among the voters of the Tisza Party: only one percent said that Viktor Orbán's governance had had a very positive impact, while 87 percent rated it negatively. Even the voters of Demokratikus Koalíció (DK) and Mi Hazánk do not have such a negative opinion of the performance of the Orbán governments.

However, respondents were not only divided on this issue along party lines; there were also significant differences across generations.

The proportion of those who view the Orbán era positively is higher among those over 60, but they are not in the majority. In contrast, nearly 60 percent of those between the ages of 18 and 25 view this period negatively.

The opinion of Fidesz voters greatly differed from the average responses on other issues as well. For example, 40 percent of them said that democracy in Hungary had improved over the past 15 years, while only 13 percent thought it had deteriorated. In contrast, only 2-3 percent of opposition party voters see improvement in this area, with more than three-quarters believing that the situation has deteriorated. There was almost the same disparity when respondents were asked about the state of healthcare. Although 38 percent of Fidesz supporters also believe that the situation has deteriorated, 31 percent see an improvement, while only 2 percent of Tisza Party supporters gave this answer, and 84 percent of them believe that the situation has deteriorated.

You need to be on good terms with those in power

Forty-five percent of Fidesz supporters feel that they are financially better off than they were 15 years ago. Among supporters of other parties, however, the vast majority strongly disagrees with this statement. Sixty-six percent of Tisza Party voters feel that their financial situation is worse than it was 15 years ago, and only 5 percent feel that their situation has improved.

In addition, nearly half of Fidesz supporters expect their financial situation to improve in the coming year, while the majority of Tisza Party and DK voters expect a further decline. Only Fidesz supporters believe that the majority of Hungarians are better off than they were 15 years ago, while more than 60 percent of all respondents believe that it is not only their own financial situation but also that of others that has deteriorated over the past 15 years.

With this in mind, it is not surprising that two-thirds (65 percent) of Hungarians agree with the statement that Viktor Orbán's rule since 2010 has primarily benefited the rich, with only one-third rejecting this claim. Two-thirds of the population also believe that only those who are on good terms with the administration can get ahead. Even 45 percent of Fidesz voters feel that good political connections are necessary for one's advancement.

Opinions are much more divided on who the government cares about. Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed agree that it only cares about those who vote for them, but nearly 40 percent disagree with this.

Viktor Orbán or Péter Magyar?

This has been one of the most important questions of Hungarian public life for more than a year, and we won’t know the answer for another 11 months. However,

based on the survey, it appears that the majority of society believes that on most issues, Péter Magyar is more suitable to lead the country than Viktor Orbán.

As part of the survey, people were asked whether they thought Viktor Orbán or Péter Magyar's government would perform better on eighteen different matters of public policy. Viktor Orbán was clearly considered stronger in three areas: supporting families, stopping migration, and keeping the government out of all military conflicts. When it comes to effectively representing national interests, people have just as much confidence in him as they do in a Tisza government.

Péter Magyar won on the other 14 issues. The majority believe he would be better at securing EU funds, fighting corruption, and improving healthcare and education.They would rather look to him to ensure economic development, increase wages and reduce inflation. The results also reveal that nearly a quarter of society is critical of both candidates and would not trust either of them.

Among Fidesz voters, Viktor Orbán won by a landslide on all issues, while Péter Magyar won among supporters of the Tisza Party. What is even more interesting is how DK and Mi Hazánk voters responded to these questions. Nearly half of DK voters and slightly more than half of Mi Hazánk voters believe that neither of the two would perform well. However, among those who did choose between the two politicians, Péter Magyar came out on top in every question for both parties, meaning that they would have more confidence in his ability to govern.

However, voters who are still undecided tend to lean toward Viktor Orbán on all issues. This could be crucial in the election, as it remains to be seen which party will be able to win over these voters before next year's election, and for now, it seems that Fidesz is more likely to attract them.

Only 44 percent of the population believes that Viktor Orbán's government, which has been in power for 15 years, can be ousted in democratic elections. Nearly 40 percent believe this is not possible. To be fair, Policy Solutions asked people the same question five years ago as well, and at that time even fewer believed that this was possible. This suggests that the changes in the political situation have made people somewhat more optimistic. Most of those who believe this are voters of the Tisza Party, with a majority (54 percent) convinced that defeating Viktor Orbán in an election is possible.