Nearly half of all Hungarian voters would like to see a change of government, large-scale survey shows

According to a large-scale survey of 4,000 people, conducted by the ELTE Institute of Sociology, the Tisza Party is in the lead nationally, and many things have changed in Hungarian society in recent years, Hvg has reported. The survey has been conducted every four years since 2015, thus allowing long-term trends to be identified from the results.

Imre Kovách, one of the leaders of the research, told the paper that the numbers show that right now, 32 percent of the total population would vote for the Tisza Party, 29 percent for Fidesz, 5 percent for Mi Hazánk, and 12 percent for other, smaller opposition parties.

Although this three percentage point difference between the top two parties may not seem significant, four years ago the ratio was similar 32-27 but in favor of Fidesz. If one only examines those who are certain to vote, Tisza has a 6 percentage point lead, and in this electoral segment, DK and Mi Hazánk would also enter parliament.

Another advantage for Tisza is that while Fidesz has few reserves left, Péter Magyar's party can still siphon off voters from DK and other opposition parties – and even from Fidesz itself, because the responses show that not all pro-government voters are fully satisfied with the current leadership.

Although four years ago, under-30s were more supportive of the opposition's list, it now appears that Tisza is favoured by those up to the age of 58, while Fidesz is leading among 62-63-year-olds, and its advantage is unquestionable among those older than that. There has also been a major shift in the parties’ popularity in the various types of settlements: in 2021, Fidesz was ahead in all types of settlements outside of Budapest, but now the ruling party is only ahead in smaller settlements, i.e., those with a population under 2,000, by a margin of 32-29, and in bigger settlements by a margin of 36-27. Tisza leads 31-27 in towns with fewer than 25,000 inhabitants, but the competition is more levelled in towns with more than 25,000 inhabitants. Tisza is ahead 34-26 in administrative towns, and the ratio is similar in the capital. The Tisza Party has greater support than Fidesz everywhere, except for South Transdanubia and Northern Hungary.

Forty-seven percent of the population would like to see a change of government, and only one-third would like the Orbán government to stay.

Compared to 2021, the number of those certain to vote has increased by 12 percentage points: 80 percent of respondents said they would definitely or most probably turn out to vote, which is an exceptionally high figure. In addition, the number of those not interested in politics has fallen by 9 percent in four years.

Two-thirds of Hungarian adults consider democracy the best form of government, which is also an improvement – in 2015, only 48 percent said the same. However, there are fewer fans of the particular form of democracy seen in Hungary, with their share falling from 47 percent to 39 percent in four years. One-tenth of those surveyed said they could accept dictatorship under certain circumstances.

The survey was conducted by Závecz Research based on in-person interviews conducted between September 25 and November 9.